Wizard of Izard



August 1, 2018


Whether or not modern medicine and grandpaw's genes can keep me compos mentis and continent for the next five or six years years remains to be seen, but just in case they do I will make some guesses about the world to come and then look back and see how wrong I was.

1. The U.S. will have to increase taxes or reduce spending by about $2,500 per year per taxpayer to keep the national debt-to-GDP ratio from rising ever higher. To fund  an almost certain shortfall  the government will cut back on infrastructure maintenance. So, highways will become even more congested with truck and commuter traffic whizzing along at 80 MPH bumper to bumper or at a crawl bumper to bumper. Middle class workers will continue to abandon cities for suburbs, thus facing longer commutes. Many cities will mostly be home to the underclass and several U.S. cities will join Detroit and resemble Nairobi or Lagos. More vans will deposit commuters downtown at nine and whisk them back to the hinterlands at five.


What enters the U.S. on a Chinese cargo ship ends up near a U.S. city as garbage.

Imports from China will remain at a high level and the cargo will eventually end up in dumps. At least part of this country will resemble a dump with much trash deposited on our streets, country side, and water ways.
2. Aging and entitlements will force the next president to look for a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. The tax hikes will prevent economic growth and the spending cuts will diminish the power of the military, so we will lose the ability to project power around the globe. Thus, China will retake Taiwan, peaceable, and also bring much of East and Southeast Asia into its sphere of influence.  Japan will hold out as long as it can, but will eventually look east.

3. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will become dominant players in their regions, while Iran sinks further with Hassan Rouhani or his like at the helm.   Russia will continue to nibble at the borders of neighbors, while playing one world power off against another. NATO will lose credibility and parts of Eastern Europe will return to dictatorships. Western Europe will be inundated with immigrants  unable to assimilate and thus becoming increasingly disruptive.  NAFTA will exist on paper and hemispheric relations will fray.

4. The worst fears about climate change won’t come true. But urban development in the naturally dry west will continue to lead to fire storms and every natural disaster will continue to be reported by the national media as proof of climate change. Expect to see more images of sick polar bears. I will be interested to see if electric cars and trucks begin to replace gas and diesel.

5. Race relations will stay about the same, as will the income gap between blacks and whites. The white lower class will loose hope and sink even further and the hispanics will gain, both economically and in social stability. Hispanics may be the biggest gainers in years to come, but their political clout may well remain low.

6. There should be many changes in U.S. education, but due to the intransigence of school and college officials change will be excruciatingly slow. High schools should only take students through the 10th grade with the last two years turned over to community colleges. "What no football!"  The community colleges should reduce their emphasis on college transfer programs and promote career offerings. American universities should cease promoting social engineering and return to their true business of education. I don't expect that to happen in the next five years unless their budgets are drastically reduced, which might lead to cutting dead wood: departments such as sociology, psychology, and philosophy.

7. I don't see how the rancor between left and right can get much worse, but I will save any predictions until after the 2020 election. The difference between the two tribes is not that great, but despising the other side is easier than working to solve problems....no heavy lifting required.

8. Given that an additional two billion more energy eating trash making humans are scheduled to arrive on the planet in the next few decades, coupled with our inability to face unpleasant  reality, indicates the eventual demise of our species. We can only hope we don't take too many of the other species with us.